Hurricane Bill Track – Four National Hurricane Center maps below show the projected track of Hurricane Bill on a path curving north to hit Bermuda, but sparing the Virgin Islands.
Hurricane Bill is forecast to strengthen rapidly on Tuesday into a Category 3 hurricane with winds above 125 mph, but it looks like it will veer away northward before reaching the Virgin Islands.
This computer model map below shows Bill’s storm track as various “spaghetti models” as it approaches the Caribbean, with almost all projected tracks showing a near direct hit on Bermuda.
As seen in this map, tropical storm force winds extend outward from Bill’s center for hundreds of miles along the storm track.
And that’s the latest maps of the Hurricane Bill Track.
Tags: 2009 hurricane season, huricane, hurricane bill, hurricane bill path, hurricane bill track
August 17th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Projected Path of Hurricane Bill – Latest Update
Category 3 storm Bill still headed sliightly south and west of Bermuda.
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
CORRECTED BUOY ID TO 41041
BILL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES…WITH HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1800 UTC…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
BILL PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF NOAA BUOY 41041 THIS AFTERNOON…WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB AT 1800 UTC WITH A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 51 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 969 MB.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK…AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM.
AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER…THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY IN 2 OR 3 DAYS…WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL SHOW ARE STRONGER LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…PEAKING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEFORE SHOWING SOME WEAKENING AT DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS…AND THROUGH THAT TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT….WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET…WHICH HAS FINALLY TRENDED TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW BILL INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHEN AND WHERE BILL RECURVES.
INTERESTINGLY…THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AT 5 DAYS…BUT NOW LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN EVEN FARTHER EAST.
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5…AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS IN TRACK FORECASTING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD…WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.6N 46.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 48.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 53.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.8N 56.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 61.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 27.0N 65.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 33.1N 67.5W 105 KT
August 18th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Hurricane Bill Now Category 2 Storm
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES…1305 KM…EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HURRICANE BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES…240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB…28.56 INCHES.
TRMM DATA FROM 0223 UTC AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT BILL IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY IN THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KT…AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.
HURRICANE BILL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE…WHICH SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT…THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ONE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA…MOVING SOUTHWARD.
A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD.
FINALLY…A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN 72-120 HR.
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHS…BUT THERE IS SOME NOTABLE SPREAD IN WHERE AND WHEN.
THE ECMWF…GFS…GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN…AND THE BAM MODELS TURN BILL NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W-65W IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN BETWEEN 65W-70W…DUE TO LESS RESPONSE TO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS AND THE EVENTUAL EFFECT OF THE THIRD TROUGH.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS IN THE WESTERN CLUSTER…AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO JUMP THE FORECAST TO THE EASTERN CLUSTER.
THEREFORE…THE NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BILL IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT…AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD INTENSIFY AFTER THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS OVER…WITH ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN 48 HR.
AFTER 48 HR…THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.5N 49.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.4N 54.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.7W 105 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 20.5N 59.0W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 24.0N 63.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 67.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 35.5N 68.0W 100 KT
August 18th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Hurricane Bill Becomes Major Hurricane
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH…175 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB…28.41 INCHES.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.
USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14.
THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THEREAFTER…THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS…BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2…AND HAS NOT BEEN ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL.
THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS…DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W 85 KT
August 19th, 2009 at 8:13 am
Hurricane Bill Now Category 4 – Projected Path Could Threaten New England
Powerful Hurricane Bill has 125 mph winds that extend 45 miles outward from its center and the huge tropical storm system spans 350 miles across as it skirts the northern Leeward Isands.
Bill’s projected path shifts further westward each day and some computer models now show a storm track that skirts the New England coast.
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC / NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009
BILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 115 KT AT 06Z…AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB…27.99 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT.
BILL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W.
THESE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR…WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN.
AFTER THAT…A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR…WITH THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP TURN OUT TO SEA.
OVERALL…THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST…SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BILL HAS STRENGTHENED IN SPITE OF BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12 HR…SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
BY 48-72 HR…BILL SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR…SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 72 HR…BILL SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…AND A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES…WHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE…MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 18.0N 54.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 56.8W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.6N 59.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 62.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 64.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 36.0N 68.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 80 KT
August 19th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
Hurricane Bill Projected Path – Latest Update
It’s looking more and more likely that Hurricane Bill could threaten the New England area with high winds and heavy rain as the projected path of Hurricane Bill has shifted further westward, as it has with every update from the National Hurricane Center.
Here’s the latest update:
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB…27.96 INCHES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH MESOCYCLONES NOTED IN THE EYE…CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN.
AN FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY MEASURED 135 KT AT 700 MB…ALONG WITH SFMR WINDS OF 103 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. IN ADDITION…THERE WAS AN SFMR MEASUREMENT OF 106 KT FROM THE NOAA MISSION THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ARE 127 KT FROM TAFB/SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THESE DATA.
VERY WARM WATERS ARE ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE SOME SHEAR ON BILL…ONE ALONG 60W AND OTHER AT ABOUT 70W.
WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER THE FIRST TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE HURRICANE MUCH…MOST MODELS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING IN A COUPLE DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE SECOND FEATURE.
IN ADDITION…AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM NOTED AT ABOUT 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA.
REGARDLESS…ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS…AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THAT LIKELIHOOD.
THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER…NOW 305/17.
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP BILL ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.
SOME OF THE MODELS…SUCH AS THE GFS…NOW SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT…BILL WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE…AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.
BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE…SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE BAHAMAS…BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 19.8N 57.6W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.1N 59.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 23.0N 62.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 25.2N 64.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 27.9N 66.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 42.0N 65.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 51.5N 50.5W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
August 20th, 2009 at 7:16 am
Hurricane Bill Path – Latest Update – August 19, 2009
Hurricane Bill to hammer New England coast with high winds, heavy rain, and rough surf on Sunday.
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009
DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL…AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 123 KT WINDS AT 700 MB…WHICH IS DOWN ALMOST 20 KT FROM EARLIER.
AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE 105-110 KT.
BASED ON THIS AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT BILL HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS MAY BE STARTING TO DIMINISH…AS THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS INCREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/16.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY TWO MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS…ONE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ONE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES.
THE SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR…CAUSING BILL TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.
AFTER 48 HR…ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES…WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48-72 HR…THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.
THE GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…BRINGING THE CENTER OF BILL JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH SHARPER EASTWARD TURN…KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND CANADA.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE TRACK GRAPHIC…AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HR…AND THIS BASIS SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST UNCERTAIN DURING THE 24-72 HR TIME FRAME AS BILL INTERACTS WITH THE CURRENT WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH COULD CAUSE SHEAR TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER…SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER BILL…WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE.
FOR NOW…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AS A COMPROMISE.
AFTER 72 HR…BILL SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE BAHAMAS…BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.6N 60.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 23.0N 62.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 25.2N 64.7W 120 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 27.8N 66.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.8N 68.1W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 38.5N 68.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 46.6N 59.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W 55 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
August 22nd, 2009 at 8:23 am
Hurricane Bill Shifts West – Tropical Storm Force Wind Warnings For New England
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE…AND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE.
THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL…AND A DROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB.
BASED ON THIS DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
BILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19.
OTHER THAN THAT…THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE.
HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
AFTER 48 HR…THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
AFTER THAT TIME…THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE NEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS…AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR…COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO WEAKEN.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT THE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR…AND THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND…CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST…AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA.
ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK DEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 33.0N 68.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 36.1N 68.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 40.1N 67.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 44.1N 63.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 48.0N 55.6W 60 KT…INLAND
72HR VT 25/0600Z 51.0N 31.5W 40 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z 54.0N 14.0W 30 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 58.0N 4.0W 20 KT…EXTRATROPICAL
August 22nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
akaxuxel…
September 10th, 2009 at 12:31 am
Danny 2009 path
December 19th, 2009 at 4:37 am
So soon, my baby! I loose control! You are sooo hot! I love you!!!